Can Republican Leaders Control the Party’s Outsider Candidates in 2018?
By Daniel Bush via PBS NewsHour
Before Roy Moore was accused of sexual misconduct, Senate Republican leaders appeared confident that in 2018 they could avoid the pitfalls of past election cycles. In previous years, conservative primary voters nominated controversial Tea Party favorites like Christine O’Donnell and Todd Akin, who lost badly in their general election campaigns.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell used O’Donnell and Akin as cautionary examples at a Rose Garden press conference with President Donald Trump in mid-October, where he laid out his plan for defending control of the Senate in 2018.
“Our operating approach will be to support our incumbents, and in open seats to seek to help nominate people who can actually win in November,” McConnell said.
Moore’s allegations three weeks later upended the Senate election in Alabama. However, his refusal to drop out of the race—despite intense pressure from McConnell and other Republicans—has highlighted how difficult it will be for party leaders to exert influence over the 2018 election. This marks the first midterm in 12 years with a Republican in the White House.
Diminished Influence of Republican Leaders
National Republican leaders no longer have “direct influence in choosing the outcome in primaries,” said Robert Graham, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, who is considering a run for retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat. “I think their power has diminished significantly.”
Steve Gill, a former conservative talk radio host in Tennessee—another state with a high-profile Senate race—was more blunt:
“In 2018, Republican leaders think they can just pull the playbook off the shelf, but it’s not going to work.” — Steve Gill
A Changing Political Landscape
The party’s strategy of shutting down conservative primary challengers succeeded in 2014, but the political climate has changed. Back then, with Barack Obama in his sixth year in office and Democrats controlling the Senate, Republicans lacked a national leader to rally their conservative base.
McConnell and other Republican leaders stepped into that power vacuum to guide the party through the midterm elections. With a unified focus on repealing the Affordable Care Act and regaining the Senate, they faced less pressure to produce concrete results beyond fighting the Obama administration’s agenda.
Now, with control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, the dynamic has shifted. Trump firmly holds the party’s leadership, making McConnell’s previous role less significant.
Voter Frustration and Anti-Establishment Sentiment
Despite Trump and the party’s electoral success, polls indicate deep frustration among Republican voters. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted after the Moore allegations found that 60% of Republican voters disapprove of the congressional GOP’s job performance.
Joe Carr, a former Republican state lawmaker in Tennessee, echoed these frustrations:
“For a lot of us down here in flyover country, the status quo is the same politicians getting elected year after year, and nothing changes.” — Joe Carr
After Sen. Bob Corker announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, Carr encouraged Rep. Marsha Blackburn to run for the Senate. However, his support came with a caveat: he expected her to oppose McConnell in Washington.
“McConnell personifies the establishment. To win, Blackburn must fully support Donald Trump and oppose McConnell’s agenda.” — Joe Carr
The Challenge of Striking a Balance
Striking that balance won’t be easy, as Republican Ed Gillespie learned in Virginia’s governor’s race. He was criticized both for embracing Trump’s policies and for not supporting the president enough.
Meanwhile, Moore tapped into voter frustration with Congress. He defeated Sen. Luther Strange—McConnell and Trump’s preferred candidate—by campaigning on standing up to McConnell.
The 2018 election will be filled with Republican candidates hoping to capitalize on conservative voters’ displeasure with Washington.
Primary Challenges and the Establishment’s Response
Moore won’t be on the ballot in 2018, but many similar candidates will. Chris McDaniel, a conservative state senator in Mississippi, is expected to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker with the likely backing of Steve Bannon.
In Arizona, Kelli Ward is running for Flake’s seat, embracing Trump’s nationalist, America-first agenda. Bannon has already endorsed her.
Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund—a super PAC allied with McConnell—has already gone on the offensive. This summer, they aired an ad labeling Ward as “Chemtrail Kelli” for hosting a town hall on airplane contrails, a topic tied to conspiracy theories.
Their strategy recalls past efforts to brand conservative challengers as too extreme—such as O’Donnell’s infamous admission of “dabbling in witchcraft” and Akin’s controversial comments on “legitimate rape.”
A Test of Influence
The Moore allegations serve as an early test for Republican leaders ahead of 2018. Some believe primary voters will weed out flawed candidates and blame Congress, not Trump, for legislative gridlock.
Scott Golden, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party, remains optimistic:
“I’ve run into Republicans frustrated with the pace of change, but they’re excited about the direction. They just want to get there faster.” — Scott Golden
Others warn that Republican leaders underestimate grassroots anger. Rhett Ruggerio, a Democratic lobbyist, recalled how O’Donnell energized fringe voters in 2010:
“What’s trending in the Republican Party now is the fringe right. They’re the ones engaged in party politics. And in midterms, history shows those campaigns succeed.” — Rhett Ruggerio
Gill agrees: Republican leaders don’t “grasp the anger against the establishment.” The conservative and populist bases “aren’t buying what they’re selling.”